College Democrats | University of Wisconsin - Madison

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Unsurprising Results...or are they?
So Huckabee wins Kansas and exit polls show him narrowly leading in Louisiana, although the race is way too close to call with only about 1% of the vote in. I just heard Pat Buchanan on MSNBC say he should do well in the heavily evangelical protestant north while McCain should do better in mostly catholic southern Louisiana, which makes sense to me.

Does McCain have a problem? Maybe, it seems now with Romney out, conservative GOP voters are actually rallying behind Huckabee. But this might only be in the south/heavily evangelical states. I think it's probable that McCain will come back in larger states, but the results tonight might upset the conventional wisdom that McCain is a TOTAL lock. As I've said before, the main reason McCain has been winning primaries has been the divisions among conservatives among 2-3 candidates while McCain dominates among moderates, even though conservatives do make up the overwhelming majority of GOP primary voters. Now that there is only 1 alternative to McCain, effectively, this might be a problem for him. Probably not in the end though, McCain has such a large delegate lead to begin with.

Obama continues his pattern of winning caucus elections by wide margins (almost always taking 2/3 of the vote interestingly) in Washington state and Nebraska. Louisiana was a primary, a closed one at that, so you'd think Clinton would do better. But LA being in the deep south, the Democratic electorate is half black. The pattern of racially polarized voting continues with Obama getting nearly 90% of the black vote and Clinton getting 70% of the white vote. Obama is heavily favored to win, although they haven't called it yet.

UPDATE: Obama wins in LA as expected. But here's something something I hadn't even considered, Huckabee is not only leading solidly in LA but is actually currently leading in the open Washington state Republican caucus (There are no entrance polls available so it's impossible to know how it will play out). That would be crazy if he sweeps them all, especially if he won in a moderate state like Washington.

MORNING UPDATE: Ok, so McCain takes Washington and Huck gets no delegates from Louisiana cuz he didn't break 50%. What a shame.
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 8:28 PM 3 comments Post to DemWire

John Edwards Supporters Split in NC
In a recent poll that showed Hillary and Obama in a deadheat in the North Carolina primary, former supporters of John Edwards were split between the two remaining candidates, 41% to 41%.
posted by Jack Craver at 3:27 PM 2 comments Post to DemWire

The beginnings of a misleading race
The DNC this week sent out a largely misleading message attacking the presumed GOP nominee Sen. McCain, probably in an effort to energize Democratic Party donors. I assume the RNC will use the same kind of misleading arguments as soon as Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton are the Democratic Party nominee. I also assume that many of these types of misleading attacks will become swift boat like campaign advertisements once we get into general election prime time.

Your thoughts?

Smear or Be Smeared?
posted by David Lapidus at 1:25 PM 11 comments Post to DemWire

Ron Paul Kind of Withdraws
Ron Paul admitted in an email to his supporters that he has almost no chance of winning the nomination. He says he now wants to concentrate on winning re-election to his congressional seat in Texas. His campaign will go on, but he is going to scale down his national staff.

My favorite part of the email is when Paul actually discusses how his hopes for a brokered convention were unlikely to be realized now that Romney is gone. How often does a politician acknowledge that type of calculation when talking to voters?
posted by Jack Craver at 1:04 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Possible Debate in Wisconsin...
Apparently Hillary Clinton has accepted an invitation to debate at Marquette sometime before the Wisconsin primary. Obama has not yet accepted and it is unclear whether or not he will. Earlier he said he would only participate in two debates rather than Clinton's plan of doing one per week. Now I am probably just being selfish but if the debate is going to be at Marquette and not UW I really could care less. For that reason I would be very pleased to see Obama turn down the invitation!
posted by Andrew Voss at 10:40 AM 1 comments Post to DemWire

Friday, February 08, 2008

Obey Endorses Obama
Obey, who had previously supported John Edwards, switched to Obama today.
posted by Jack Craver at 2:52 PM 6 comments Post to DemWire

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Grandma and Obama
This is not breaking news or anything, but put a smile on my face.

This is an excerpt from an e-mail I received from my grandma, who lives in a very small town in Illinois, after Super Tuesday:

HI, We are thinking about you today in this terrible snow storm. Hope you are keeping warm, and safe in this weather. I was election Judge yesterday, and got home last night before the storm got too bad. When I am an election judge I have to be at the poll by 5:00 a.m. and get home about 9:00 p.m. Obama had the most votes for the Dems. This is a very republican county. I know I handed some democratic ballots to some republicans, so he did very well here. When is Wisconsin Primary? We also want to know Obama's age, and is his mother dead?


First of all, I think it is totally cool that my grandma e-mails me (and asks me random questions about Obama.)
Second of all, I think she is totally awesome for being an election judge.
Third of all, Republicans are voting for Obama.

Just thought I'd share.
posted by Molly Rivera at 8:52 PM 7 comments Post to DemWire

90 Years...
"The Capital Times was founded in 1917 with the modest purpose of promoting peace and economic and social justice. We also hoped to gather all the news that mattered and to sell some papers."

So begins the eulogy of Madison's Progressive newspaper. After ninety years of daily circulation, the afternoon paper I grew up with will be closing up shop. While they will continue online publication and a free weekly print edition, it's apparent that the plague facing print journalism has finally reached the shores of this island of liberalism.

First it was Milwaukee, which saw the Journal merge with the Sentinel in 1995. A couple years ago, Green Bay followed suit as the News-Chronicle caved into the Press-Gazette. And now Madison, the home of Progressivism, is the final nail in the coffin.

With circulation down to only 17,000, comparable to the Badger Herald, the executives at Capital Newspapers have decided to shut down the presses in the afternoon, leaving Madisonians with only the Wisconsin State Journal.

The Cap Times had a great run, voicing opposition to World War I and endorsing the candidacy of the Rev. Jesse Jackson during his Presidential bid in 1988. It was the progressive paper in a town that wore its liberalism with pride, and it was unafraid to call out politicians who sacrificed the best interests of the people for their own gain.

While its competitor supported the reelection of President Bush, the Cap Times would have nothing to do with it. From Dave Zweifel to the fiery John Nichols, the Cap Times will always have a place in my heart.

In the information age, I wonder if I'm being too sentimental about the daily paper. If the Cap Times is able to continue high quality journalism with solely online content, perhaps we haven't lost too much at all, but if a second set of eyes that has always looked out for the little guy suddenly disappears from this isthmus, Madison will reap the consequences.
posted by Oliver Kiefer at 8:37 PM 10 comments Post to DemWire

Senate Defeats Feingold Amendments
Russ Feingold introduced two amendments, which I assume were attempts to protect our liberty and preserve our 4th amendment rights. If reading legislation wasn't such a chore I would give more analysis. Braver minds can read here, and here.

Both were defeated. Roll calls here and here.
posted by Jack Craver at 6:33 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Senate Passes Stimulus Plan
$168 billion. Democrats wanted to add another $40 billion in additional benefits but were blocked by a Republican filibuster. No Democrats voted against the final bill. Here is the roll call.

Symbolic or necessary? Any ideas.
posted by Jack Craver at 6:26 PM 1 comments Post to DemWire

What will you do with your $300-$1200 rebate check?
Spend it? Invest it? Save it? Burn it?

Well?

Me: Luckily, most of my life expenses are under control for the moment, so I'll probably invest it.

Senate Approves Economic Aid Plan With Rebates for Older People, Disabled VeteransWASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate passed an economic rescue plan Thursday that would speed $600 to $1,200 in rebates to most taxpayers and $300 checks to low-income people, including disabled veterans and the elderly...

Bush indicated he would sign the measure and said the Senate made changes "in ways I can support."...

The Senate plan would rush rebates -- $600 for individuals, $1,200 for couples -- to most taxpayers and cut business taxes in hopes of reviving the economy. Individuals making up to $75,000 a year and couples earning up to $150,000 would get rebates.

If the House follows suit as expected and Bush shortly thereafter signs the measure, the rebate checks would be expected to begin arriving in May. The rebates would be based on 2007 tax returns, which are not due until April 15.
posted by David Lapidus at 6:16 PM 7 comments Post to DemWire

Capital Times to Suspend Daily Publication
The Wisconsin State Journal reports that the Capital Times is moving to a free bi-weekly format on April 25 of this year. This ends Madison's status as one of the last cities in the U.S. with a morning and an evening newspaper. Circulation had declined to a shockingly low 17,000 and clearly in the age of internet, an afternoon newspaper is no longer relevant, with breaking news available 24/7 on the internet. This will allow it to be distributed free around Madison, much like the Onion and Isthmus, and obtain an estimated circulation of 80,000. Still, it's sort of a sad demise for a very progressive newspaper that has been around for 90 years.
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 1:10 PM 4 comments Post to DemWire

Breaking: Mittens Out!
Willard Mitt Romney has mercifully suspended his futile presidential bid so he can stop wasting poor Tagg's inheritance.
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 11:31 AM 3 comments Post to DemWire

And the GOP Wonders... Part Two
The GOP often wonders why voters of color choose to overwhelmingly reject their party in favor of ours. One might argue it's because of quotes like this one:

“Proponents of affirmative action just want to justify their existence. It’s absurd,” [Sen. Glen] Grothman (R - West Bend) told me. “Just a bunch of affirmative action bureaucrats looking for a job, advancing their racist agenda.”


I should have led that off with, "From the folks who brought you the bigoted gay marriage ban..."

That quote was taken from Andy Granias' column in today's Badger Herald, examining a proposed constitutional amendment in Wisconsin that would ban affirmative action.

Let me be clear about my position on this issue: Until we are truly a color-blind society, until being white and/or coming from wealth has no bearing on the jobs you can get or the schools you can attend there is a need to write equality into our laws.

Newsflash, Mr. Grothman - we're not there yet.
posted by Oliver Kiefer at 7:35 AM 0 comments Post to DemWire

All Eyes on Us
All day we've watched the pundits try to spin Super Tuesday as a victory for Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, but I think that it's clear to everyone that Tuesday's vote really answered few questions in the minds of Democratic voters.

In less than two weeks, Wisconsin will take center stage. This will be high noon for both campaigns, and may just provide the momentum each needs to propel their campaign to the nomination.

We have two Rockstar candidates this year, each with progressive credentials and enormous name recognition, not to mention campaign war chests that rival the economies of many developing nations (repeat: campaign finance reform, anyone?). Perhaps the biggest difference between the two is their approach to leadership, and that's a very important distinction. It means that during the next two weeks, voters like us must search our conscience and determine the qualities we think will make the best president.

I believe that we will make history this year. And not just the kind of history that we're told we make in every election. The kind of history that defines an era. This November, each of us will go to the polls and cast our vote for the first female president or the first black president of the United States of America. For me, it will be the first time I will have cast a ballot in a presidential election. Needless to say, I can hardly wait.

I'm writing today because I want to emphasize the importance of the two weeks that lie ahead of us. People from all around the country will be watching what we do in Wisconsin, and what we think and say about our candidates. I want to continue to encourage honest discourse, that holds our candidates and our party to a high standard - but does so in a way that is fair and accurate. Criticism is fine, it's great - so long as it is done truthfully and constructively. That has always been the case with this blog, and I have no reason to expect things to change.

This blog has been a great forum for news, ideas, discussion, and discourse during the course of this year. I can't thank the contributors, the commentators, or the readers enough. I hope you enjoy the next two weeks, and please continue your hard work.


Forward.
-Oliver

P.S. - Remember that the opinions expressed here are those of the individuals writing them, and not necessarily those of the College Democrats or the Executive Board.
posted by Oliver Kiefer at 12:23 AM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Obama Swimming in Cash
Obama is on pace to raise $30 million in February, after raising $32 million in January compared to Hillary Clinton's $13 million. Apparently the resource disparity has already shown, as the Obama campaign has begun airing ads in D.C., VA, MD, and NE.

In fact, sources are indicating that Hillary is thinking about pulling a Mitt Romney and loaning herself some money to make up for the gap.

Public financing anyone?
posted by Jack Craver at 5:39 PM 1 comments Post to DemWire

Italy has a new PM practically every 1-2 years lol...
And this trend continues...

37 Prime Ministers since 1946, compared to the UK's 12 since WWII...

I think I'd go mad if we had elections for our entire federal government on average every 1.676 years hehe...

Berlusconi: Italy's 'comeback kid'?
By Christian Fraser
BBC News, Rome

Italians are bracing for fresh elections in April - less than two years after they elected the last parliament.

The country is set to go to the polls with the same system of proportional representation that was widely blamed for the fragmentation of Italian politics.

The Speaker of the Senate, Franco Marini, has tried to find support among all the parties for an interim government, with a mandate to reform the electoral laws.

But in the end he failed to convince the centre-right parties that reform should come first. There are currently 39 parties in parliament.


Where are the young politicians, the Barack Obamas, the David Camerons of Italian politics? There are precious few

The collapse of Romano Prodi's centre-left government opened the door, once again, to the irrepressible Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister and billionaire businessman who controls three of Italy's commercial television channels.

His current lead in the polls ranges from 10 to 16 points.

Centre-left split

The centre-left, reeling from their collapse in the Senate vote of confidence last month, now have an enormous challenge ahead.

Walter Veltroni, the 52-year-old mayor of Rome, is widely expected to replace Mr Prodi as the centre-left's candidate for prime minister, but he has indicated he would have liked more time to prepare his new Democratic Party for the elections.

He had supported President Giorgio Napolitano's efforts to reform the electoral laws.

Mr Veltroni has said he wants his party to run alone, without the support of the other parties in the centre-left coalition.

If he does that, some analysts predict he will win a greater share of the vote - but running alone would almost certainly ensure victory for the opposition.

If Mr Berlusconi wins - as the polls suggest he will - it will be his third term as prime minister.

From 2001-2006 he led the longest-serving government since World War II. It is the only post-war government to have seen out a full five-year term.

But he was criticised over that period for his handling of the economy. There was a marked downturn in economic growth, with increasing unemployment and rising debt.

Many have said it was a wasted opportunity, with his government failing to live up to many of its promises.

'Comeback kid'

Mr Berlusconi's lead in the polls is not necessarily a matter of personal popularity. Italy is frustrated with the instability and chaos brought about by the centre-left.

Even though Mr Prodi's government presided over a period of economic stability, a fall in unemployment, and started paying off public debt, it is the perception that counts.

Mr Prodi spent most of his time reconciling differences between the nine parties of his coalition, rather than selling the achievements of his government.

Mr Berlusconi has been labelled by some papers as the "comeback kid". Perhaps, but many Italians express dismay that the same faces keep reappearing.

Where are the young politicians, the Barack Obamas, the David Camerons of Italian politics?

There are precious few. And that is because under the system as it stands, each party puts forward its own list of candidates chosen by the party leaders. In Italy voters have little choice over individual candidates.

Mr Berlusconi would be 76 at the end of another five years in office. His cosmetic surgery (hair implants and a face-lift) give him a much younger complexion, but there have been scares over his health. He had minor heart surgery in 2006 after fainting on stage.

Court battles

On top of that, he has been tried 11 times for corruption - and some of these trials are still running. The allegations mostly relate to his business activities before he entered politics, when he made his fortune in property and television.

He is still on trial in Milan on a charge that he paid his former British lawyer David Mills, the estranged husband of the British Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell, $600,000 (£300,000) to lie for him in a previous court case.

Mr Berlusconi denies all the charges and has accused the judges of conducting a politically-motivated witch-hunt.

To reassure some of the wavering voters, Mr Berlusconi has put a very British stamp on his comeback campaign, promising to govern for three years if elected, before handing control to a unnamed successor.

He has modelled this approach on former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Supporters within his Forza Italia party say Mr Berlusconi still has plenty to offer. Certainly his election manifesto will prove attractive to some voters.

He says he has a plan for the first 100 days in government and is promising to cut taxes, including tax on property.

By contrast, Mr Prodi's coalition cracked down on tax evasion in Italy and pushed up the high rate of tax for top earners. Never a vote winner.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7229045.stm

Published: 2008/02/06 07:29:44 GMT

© BBC MMVIII
posted by David Lapidus at 4:59 PM 3 comments Post to DemWire

a party divided against itself...
I tried to believe we would have a candidate by now. We've been hearing a lot today, after the ambiguous Super Tuesday results, about Democrats deciding their nominee at convention.

Besides being a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly (on the level of the Giants winning the Super Bowl), deciding at convention would be horrible for the party and horrible for our ultimate nominee. At this point I would take an Obama candidacy in a heartbeat over a third, fourth, or fifth-ballot nominating vote in July. Hillary supporters should not be crossing their fingers for a chaotic convention-floor battle. It's a good thing this is still unlikely.

But in a campaign season where the more unlikely an event is, the likelier it seems, it's worth asking "what if." If it's July and we still have no idea who our nominee is, what will we do? How will we behave? Will we finally get around to the intra-party dialogue we've been avoiding? Will we finally be forced to admit that the Democratic Party is less united than any year since 1968? Democrats spent two years preparing for 2008 without a specific vision for what a good chief executive would be. And our party is cleaved in two because of it.

The Clinton campaign has spent its time discussing only Hillary's abilities as a government leader, only her "presidential" qualities and never her ability to captivate the collective American imagination and move us forward. Hillary has trained her supporters to be cynical about Obama's vision, and it's too bad. If she loses, that will be the reason.

The Obama camp, in turn, has avoided discussion of in-office leadership abilities and experience, preferring to impress people with their stunning vision for a new political order. In the process Obama has turned experience into something suspect (experience = willingness to navigate the bureaucracy = status quo candidate = sell-out) (No nasty responses, Anonymous, I'm skewering both nominees here.)

If we assume that the point of nominating presidential candidates is to select the best potential President, both campaigns have been profoundly foolish. Each has sung the praises of specific presidential qualities, while flat-out denying the relevance of the qualities they lack. And each candidate's supporters (I too am guilty here) have gone along with this.

Primaries and caucuses should be about insisting on candidates who don't undermine or scoff at entire subsets of necessary leadership skills. A lot of people see the Clinton/Obama contest as great for the Democratic Party. I think it shows our complete lack of internal organization and creative discussion.

We want to be America's party again, right? We are not acting like it.
posted by Eric Schmidt at 3:51 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday Demographic Trends
It's quite clear pollsters dramatically underestimated the Latino vote in California, who, according to exit polls, made up nearly 30% of the vote. At the same time they overestimated the African American vote, they only made up about 6% of the electorate. Romney is also dramatically underperforming there. I'm not sure what accounts for these polling failures, elsewhere in the country there didn't seem to be that many egregious mistakes. As Kos shows, Survey USA with their automated polling has been scary accurate this year, and appears to have actually gotten California pretty close, so their must be something to their methodology.

The demographics benefit Clinton heavily and since Obama only narrowly won whites, I don't see how he can win the state overall. If Obama didn't win California, I don't see how he can win the overall delegate count for today.

That said, Obama seems to have kept it close enough around to fight on. He won a lot of very red, very white rural states like Kansas, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah. Maybe their awareness that Clinton will do poorly in rural areas? At the same time, Clinton did win southern border states like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee easily. Probably due to the combination of many fewer blacks in the electorates there than in Georgia, Alabama, or South Carolina in the deep south and the continuing heavy support for Clinton over Obama from Southern whites. Missouri looks like the closest state, and was probably called too early for Clinton by MSNBC because with 98% of the votes in, Obama is actually leading.

Obama also had blowouts in the largeish caucus states of Minnesota and Colorado. Interestingly, Clinton won the heavily Latino Arizona while Obama looks set to take the even more heavily Latino neighboring New Mexico (the difference appears to be the white vote). Obama's wins in Delaware and Connecticut but losses in New Jersey and Massachussetts were also interesting. Again, it's all proportional on the Democratic side so Obama will get his haul of delegates and probably win an equal number of states as Clinton, although his states are considerably smaller. It really is anyone's game now.

As expected, McCain is winning everywhere, and Romney isn't doing a whole lot better than Huckabee (I'm not sure why the media decided Romney was DEFINITELY going to be the Conservative alternative when Huck still enjoys such strong support from evangelicals, particularly in the South). Romney basically is winning random exclusive caucuses, states he's lived in, and states with a lot of Mormons. I don't think there's any stopping McCain.

One note though: the biggest McCain victories have been in solidly blue states with lots of moderate Republicans (he really got a big boost from Giuliani dropping out) which he probably doesn't have a chance of winning. He hasn't done so well in then southern border and western states he needs to win in the general. All the conservatives will probably come home to him in the end but those could potentially be worrisome signs.

Update: From pollster.com - This might explain why pollsters got it so wrong in CA. Apparently Latinos made up only 16-17% of the vote in the 2004 and 2000 Democratic primaries. For some reason, this time it almost doubled. Could this have to do with being on Super Tuesday for the first time?

Morning Update: Apparently I called New Mexico too fast. Obama is currently only leading by about 200 votes and it's going to come down to the 16,000 provisional ballots. I may have also been wrong about the delegate counts. I guess even though Obama didn't take the popular vote for Super Tuesday, due to weirdness of proportionality he might have actually taken more delegates, depending on final results from a few states remaining. Either way, it's so close all around whether he got a few more or a few less isn't so important since he got his "we won more states" PR victory. I still don't understand how Obama could have won 56% of the vote in Alabama and still have gotten 1 delegate less than Clinton in the state...whatever, it'll be finalized soon enough. Obama is, however, still behind by nearly 100 pledged super delegates and the race could very well come down to them. I say, either have the party bosses chose the candidates or the voters; mixing it up is kind of bizarre. Finally, random speculation, I wonder if Romney's tendency to underperform both exit polls and preelection polls may be due to some kind of "Bradley Effect" for Mormons?
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 11:02 PM 9 comments Post to DemWire

First Super Tuesday Exit Polls are in...
From Drudge Report:


WARNING: EXIT NUMBERS EARLY AND DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL VOTES:OBAMA:
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut:
Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Georgia: Obama 75,
Clinton 26... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton
48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...
CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47...
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee:
Clinton 52, Obama 41...


posted by David Lapidus at 6:05 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

It's important to keep in mind...
Almost all the research out there points to the fact that voters vote based on personality rather than policy differences. This article from the Wall Street Journal today points to the fact that the most anti-war Democrats in New Hampshire actually broke for Hillary, while most McCain voters consider him experienced and a strong leader but don't actually agree with him on most of the issues. The former no doubt like Hillary's fierce partisan outlook compared to Obama at least, while the later no doubt are very concerned with the vague concept of electability.

The exception, I guess, is when one's position is so far from the voters you are trying to attract (think Rudy Giuliani), it's going to cause problems. But they are rarely the deciding factor. I bet the exit polls tonight will show similar contradictions between the voters and the candidate positions.

...adding, this is part of the reason Romney is probably going to be blown out tonight. Although he flip-flopped on every issue to make himself more like the Repub. base, many of them didn't buy it, preferring the macho authenticity of straight talker Saint McCain.
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 2:33 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

CDM to Screen "American Blackout"
Wednesday, February 13th at 8:30PM the College Democrats will be screening the film "American Blackout," a documentary that chronicles the voter disenfranchisement practices in Florida and Ohio.



With "HAVA Enforcers" and "Green Vests" from the Republican party on our campus during every election, it's important that we defend our right to vote from those who would take it away for political gain.
posted by Oliver Kiefer at 12:28 PM 1 comments Post to DemWire

Monday, February 04, 2008

Really Interesting Study
This study on the poetry of the campaign trail examines the rhetoric of the candidates scientifically, comparing choice of words, as well as the frequency certain words are used.

Interesting finding: John Edwards was rated the most negative campaigner based on the number of attacks against a specific opponent. Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, based on word choice, were rated the most rhetorically similar to Martin Luther King Jr. McCain was the most like Reagan, with Mitt Romney close behind.

Also, did anybody else see how at the last GOP debate the candidates combined for 42 mentions of Ronald Reagan? Does this type of devotion to one prophet of conservatism threaten the separation of church and state?
posted by Jack Craver at 9:13 PM 7 comments Post to DemWire

The way it is

At first glance this suggests a Clinton rout on Super Tuesday. And if there is a rout, it will favor the Clinton camp. There is no way Obama wins a majority of states tomorrow.
But look at how close these numbers are. Recent polls in many states (the black dots, with size indicating delegates at stake) show things tightening up. There has indeed been an Obama surge.
As others have mentioned, the odds of having a formal nominee on February 6 are very low. I no longer think this will go to convention, but we are still witnessing something remarkable: whichever candidate eventually drops out (in all likelihood, Obama) may leave the race with a higher number of delegates than any second-place finisher in recent memory. This suggests a very tense, bitter six months until convention.




posted by Eric Schmidt at 2:05 PM 12 comments Post to DemWire

the Fish column you need to read
Stanley Fish's column today about hating Hillary Clinton blew me away. It is one thing to speak truth to absurdity, a routine gesture among knowledgeable political people -- and one, I might add, which you can never spend too much time doing.

It's another thing to thoroughly discredit in one fell swoop, as Fish does, the collective political trance (catatonia?) which renders Hillary Clinton such a despised figure. Whether you're for or against Hillary, you need to read this piece to understand the zeitgeist of this race. Money quote:

Back in November, I wrote a column on Clinton’s response to a question about giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. My reward was to pick up an e-mail pal who has to date sent me 24 lengthy documents culled from what he calls his “Hillary File.” If you take that file on faith, Hillary Clinton is a murderer, a burglar, a destroyer of property, a blackmailer, a psychological rapist, a white-collar criminal, an adulteress, a blasphemer, a liar, the proprietor of a secret police, a predatory lender, a misogynist, a witness tamperer, a street criminal, a criminal intimidator, a harasser and a sociopath. These accusations are “supported” by innuendo, tortured logic, strained conclusions and photographs that are declared to tell their own story, but don’t.

posted by Eric Schmidt at 1:44 PM 2 comments Post to DemWire

AGAIN!?
You have GOT to be kidding me...
posted by Ryan Greenfield at 10:56 AM 2 comments Post to DemWire

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Obama and Clinton Tied in Polls
Two polls show Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical deadheat among Democratic voters nationwide. The CBS/NYTimes poll shows them tied at 41% each, while the most recent Gallup poll has Clinton leading 46% to 44%.
posted by Jack Craver at 10:51 PM 3 comments Post to DemWire

Retain Justice Butler
This Wednesday at our endorsement meeting we'll be looking at the only statewide race on the ballot this April. State Supreme Court Justice Louis Butler will be campaigning to retain his post on the bench after being appointed by Governor Doyle in August of 2004. During his time on the Court, Justice Butler has been a steadfast ally of consumers and Wisconsin citizens.

Like last year, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce (cue Star Wars dark-side theme) will be pumping millions of dollars into the race on behalf of an under qualified, pro-corporate candidate. Last year, WMC succeeded and the first year of Justice Annette Ziegler's term was marked by campaign investigations and a formal reprimand by her colleagues. Quite frankly, we can't afford to let WMC buy another seat on the State Supreme Court. Justice Butler needs our help.

The Justice has just opened a field office here in Madison at 1308 Spring Street. If you're interested in finding out more information, check out his website at http://www.louisbutler.com.
posted by Oliver Kiefer at 5:41 PM 1 comments Post to DemWire

Troop suicides up since 2002
Hopefully, Senator Webb's bill helps mitigate what has become a very tragic trend. Regardless, it is something supporters of the war - myself included - must sincerely have on their conscience as soldiers face the burdens of modern combat and military life under increasingly strained deployment situations. I just hope that when the war goes off the table as a political issue people still give a shat about veterans. I am skeptical, however, for the track record of "peacetime mode" politics has been quite lousy for veterans in the past.

Concern mounts over rising troop suicides

  • Story Highlights
  • Average of 5 soldiers per day tried to commit suicide in 2007, Army figures show
  • Sen. Jim Webb introduces legislation to improve care for soldiers
  • Army psychiatrist says soldiers must overcome stigma of treatment
  • Psychiatrist: "We know that soldiers don't want to go seek care"

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Every day, five U.S. soldiers try to kill themselves. Before the Iraq war began, that figure was less than one suicide attempt a day.

The dramatic increase is revealed in new U.S. Army figures, which show 2,100 soldiers tried to commit suicide in 2007.

"Suicide attempts are rising and have risen over the last five years," said Col. Elspeth Cameron-Ritchie, an Army psychiatrist.

Concern over the rate of suicide attempts prompted Sen. Jim Webb, D-Virginia, to introduce legislation Thursday to improve the military's suicide-prevention programs.

"Our troops and their families are under unprecedented levels of stress due to the pace and frequency of more than five years of deployments," Webb said in a written statement. VideoWatch CNN Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre on the reasons for the increase in suicides »

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington, took to the Senate floor Thursday, urging more help for military members, especially for those returning from war.

"Our brave service members who face deployment after deployment without the rest, recovery and treatment they need are at the breaking point," Murray said.

She said Congress has given "hundreds of millions of dollars" to the military to improve its ability to provide mental health treatment, but said it will take more than money to resolve the problem.

"It takes leadership and it takes a change in the culture of war," she said. She said some soldiers had reported receiving nothing more than an 800 number to call for help.

"Many soldiers need a real person to talk to," she said. "And they need psychiatrists and they need psychologists."

According to Army statistics, the incidence of U.S. Army soldiers attempting suicide or inflicting injuries on themselves has skyrocketed in the nearly five years since the start of the Iraq war.

Last year's 2,100 attempted suicides -- an average of more than 5 per day -- compares with about 350 suicide attempts in 2002, the year before the war in Iraq began, according to the Army.

The figures also show the number of suicides by active-duty troops in 2007 may reach an all-time high when the statistics are finalized in March, Army officials said.

The Army lists 89 soldier deaths in 2007 as suicides and is investigating 32 more as possible suicides. Suicide rates already were up in 2006 with 102 deaths, compared with 87 in 2005.

Cameron-Ritchie, the Army psychiatrist, said suicide attempts are usually related to problems with intimate relationships, but they are also related to problems with work, finances and the law.

"The really tough area here is stigma. We know that soldiers don't want to go seek care. They're tough, they're strong, they don't want to go see a behavioral health-care provider," Cameron-Ritchie said.

Multiple deployments and long deployments appear to exact a toll on relationships, thereby boosting the number of suicide attempts, she said.

Traditionally, the suicide rate among military members has been lower than age- and gender-matched civilians. But in recent years the rate has crept up from 12 per 100,000 among the military to 17.5 per 100,000 in 2006, she said. That's still less than the civilian figure of about 20 per 100,000, she said.

The "typical" soldier who commits suicide is a member of an infantry unit who uses a firearm to carry out the act, according to the Army.

Post-traumatic stress disorder also may be a factor in suicide attempts, Cameron-Ritchie said, because it can result in broken relationships and often leads to drug and alcohol abuse.

"The real central issue is relationships. Relationships, relationships, relationships," said U.S. Army Chaplain Lt. Col. Ran Dolinger. "People look at PTSD, they look at length of deployments ... but it's that broken relationship that really makes the difference."

To reduce suicides, the Army said it is targeting soldiers who are or have been in Iraq for long periods and teaching them to notice signs that can lead to suicide.

That training came too late for Army Specialist Tim Bowman. The 23-year-old killed himself in 2005 after returning from Iraq.

"As my family was preparing for a 2005 Thanksgiving meal, our son Timothy was lying on the floor, slowly bleeding to death from a self-inflicted gunshot wound," said his father, Mike Bowman, in testimony to a House Veterans' Affairs committee hearing in December. "His war was now over."

He said veterans return home to find an "understaffed, under-funded, under-equipped" Veterans Affairs mental health system.

"Many just give up trying," he said.

posted by David Lapidus at 1:14 PM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Push for an Independent DNR
Since 1995, Environmentalists have often complained at how the Secretary of Natural Resources serves at the pleasure of the governor in Wisconsin. Now, because hunting and fishing groups are joining the movement, Wisconsin may be moving towards a new system of appointment.
posted by Jack Craver at 11:57 AM 0 comments Post to DemWire

Yes, We Can
Another YouTube video... with some very recognizable faces.

Question: Do celebrity endorsements really mean anything?

posted by Oliver Kiefer at 1:16 AM 5 comments Post to DemWire


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