1st choice      2nd choice 
     Clinton        30              21 
     Obama          28              22 
     Edwards        26              26
     Richardson      7               6
     Biden           3               7
     Dodd            1               4
     Other           4              13

Basically, if it's all the tried and true 2004 caucus goers, plus another 25% or so, that Edwards has the advantage. If it winds up being a blown out caucus that has greater than 50,000 more attendees than 2004 (most of the polls are working off this assumption), then Obama wins. If it's somewhere in the middle, bigger than what would be usual but less than what's being projected in the polls, then it's basically going to be something like this poll.

The big '?' is weather. A snowy cold night will depress turnout. Right now, snow is being projected to begin just after Christmas and getting heavier as the year ends.

Labels: Congress, energy, environment

No serious observer of the Des Moines debate between the Democratic candidates for president doubted that the standout performance, and the standout message, was that of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Indeed, undecided voters assembled in focus groups that watched the debate for the major television networks rated Edwards off the charts. That's going to help the 2004 Democratic nominee for vice president as the Iowa caucuses approach. Despite the intense focus on the campaigns of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, most polls suggest that Edwards is very much in the running in Iowa. And rightly so.

To a far greater extent than Obama or Clinton, Edwards is striking at the heart of issues that should matter most in the race to replace not just George W. Bush, but the Bush agenda of corporate giveaways, job-crushing free trade deals, war profiteering in Iraq, and subprime mortgage profiteering in Indiana, Idaho, Illinois and, yes, Iowa.

Edwards summed up his increasingly aggressive and powerful anti-corporate themes with a declaration: "What makes America America is at stake: jobs, the middle class, health care, preserving the environment in the world for future generations.

"But all those things are at risk. And why are they at risk? Because of corporate power and corporate greed in Washington, D.C. And we have to take them on. You can't make a deal with them. You can't hope that they're going to go away. You have to actually be willing to fight. And I want every caucus-goer to know I've been fighting these people and winning my entire life. And if we do this together, rise up together, we can actually make absolutely certain, starting here in Iowa, that we make this country better than we left it."

But the former senator's most effective statement at the Des Moines Register debate on Thursday was one that reflected his deep level of engagement with working people in the upper Midwest, an engagement born of long months spent in Iowa and neighboring states -- at a time when Clinton and Obama were spending considerably more time fighting over who had better relations with the media moguls on Hollywood's A-list and in the suites of Manhattan's mortgage manipulators.

Edwards got to know workers in Iowa. He stood with them in their struggles.

Turning a broad question about human rights toward the specific issue of trade policy, the former senator said that human rights, human needs and human values "should be central to our trade policy."

"But," he added, "if you look at what's happened with American trade policy, look at what America got: Big corporations made a lot of money, are continuing to make a lot of money in China. But what did America get in return? We got millions of dangerous Chinese toys. We lost millions of jobs.

"And right here in Iowa, the Maytag plant in Newton closed. A guy named Doug Bishop, who I got to know very well, had worked in that plant, and his family had worked in that plant literally for generations. And his job is now gone. The same thing, by the way, happened in the plant that my father worked in when I was growing up. It is so important that we stop allowing these corporate powers and corporate profits to run America's policy, whether it's trade policy, how we engage with China. This is not good for America. It's not good for American jobs. And it's not good for working people in this country."

That's an issue Edwards has taken far, far more seriously than his opponents in what is now a three-way race in Iowa. And that seriousness will benefit the former senator.

Remembering the workers who have been battered by the failed trade policies of the Clinton and Bush administrations matters. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both supporters of recent trade agreements, don't remember. Edwards, who once had a shaky record on these issues but has come to be a passionate proponent of fair trade, does remember. That's why he won the debate in Des Moines. That's why no one should count him out in Iowa -- or in the rest of a yet-to-be-defined race for the Democratic nomination.

"My reaction was, This is going to be a wonderful Christmas, '

" Gov. Jim Doyle said of his feelings when John Morgridge notified him of the donation last week.

The grants, which do not need to be repaid, will be awarded through the UW System and the Wisconsin Technical College System. Students will be eligible to receive aid for up to 10 semesters.

"Wisconsin 's public high schools do an outstanding job of preparing students for higher education. We are committed to helping ensure that higher education is accessible and affordable, " Tashia Morgridge said in a news release announcing the endowment.

The Morgridges, who long have donated to educational causes, are establishing the Fund for Wisconsin Scholars with the $175 million contribution. The gift will create a permanent endowment to provide grants to low-income, recent graduates of public schools.

More than 17,000 Wisconsin students signed up before the program 's first deadline in September. In November, the Great Lakes Higher Education Guaranty Corp. donated $40 million to help the program.

Even with the Morgridges ' gift, Doyle and others said it 'll remain essential for the state to remain focused on increasing the resources for low-income students. The covenant program has a goal of generating $200 million through private fundraising. The state has increased financial aid by $40 million over a two-year period.

Doyle, Wiley and Chancellor David Wilson, who oversees the 13 freshman and sophomore UW Colleges and UW Extension, said they know of no other state that has received such a large gift to benefit low-income students.

Wilson said when he learned of it Monday night, he "literally jumped on top of a table " because it opens doors to thousands of students whose families have doubted their ability to afford college. He urged every one of those students, including young working adults considering a return to school, to call a college and find out what 's possible.

Labels: education, UW