Being a poll junkie, I was particularly fascinated by Rasmussen's recent polls focusing coincidentally on upper Midwestern States. Here's a quick rundown:
Minnesota 7/10: Obama 52%, McCain 34% (or 54/37 with "leaners")
Iowa 7/10: Obama 48%, McCain 38% (or 51/41 with "leaners")
Michigan 7/10: Obama 47%, McCain 39% (or 50/42 with "leaners")
South Dakota 7/9: Obama 40%, McCain 44% (or 43/47 with "leaners")
And here's some more Midwestern polls from the last couple weeks.
Montana 7/1: Obama 48%, McCain 43%
North Dakota 7/8: Obama 43%, McCain 43% (47/48 with "leaners")
Wisconsin 7/8: Obama 50%, McCain 39% (52/42 with "leaners")
Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana but here's what Survey USA found in June:
Indiana 6/21-6/23: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
What's interesting is that these surprisingly solid numbers for Obama in arguably the most "competitive" region of the country are all coming at a time when Obama has been losing ground (albeit very slightly) in national polls. All these states have very high favorability ratings for both candidates but they're heavily favoring Obama. Now I was never one to say Obama is going to completely shift the electoral map. Obama is not going to win Alabama in November just like McCain is not going to win Massachusetts.
That said, Obama's leads in states that John Kerry only won or lost by 1-3% (MN, MI, WI, IA) are just massive. It's beginning to seem like Obama might lock up the supposedly competitive upper Midwest pretty early for whatever reason and the Midwestern battlegrounds might shift to the Dakotas, Indiana and Montana, all of which Kerry lost by 20+ points. Ohio and Missouri should be competitive as usual. While of course it's great Obama has such a solid Wisconsin lead (confirmed by recent polls by SurveyUSA and by the UW-Madison Poli Sci Dept), the political junkie in me would be sad to see our state lose national attention and electoral significance. But bottom line, Obama has many possible paths to 270 electoral votes. McCain doesn't seem anywhere close to picking up any blue states.
Minnesota 7/10: Obama 52%, McCain 34% (or 54/37 with "leaners")
Iowa 7/10: Obama 48%, McCain 38% (or 51/41 with "leaners")
Michigan 7/10: Obama 47%, McCain 39% (or 50/42 with "leaners")
South Dakota 7/9: Obama 40%, McCain 44% (or 43/47 with "leaners")
And here's some more Midwestern polls from the last couple weeks.
Montana 7/1: Obama 48%, McCain 43%
North Dakota 7/8: Obama 43%, McCain 43% (47/48 with "leaners")
Wisconsin 7/8: Obama 50%, McCain 39% (52/42 with "leaners")
Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana but here's what Survey USA found in June:
Indiana 6/21-6/23: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
What's interesting is that these surprisingly solid numbers for Obama in arguably the most "competitive" region of the country are all coming at a time when Obama has been losing ground (albeit very slightly) in national polls. All these states have very high favorability ratings for both candidates but they're heavily favoring Obama. Now I was never one to say Obama is going to completely shift the electoral map. Obama is not going to win Alabama in November just like McCain is not going to win Massachusetts.
That said, Obama's leads in states that John Kerry only won or lost by 1-3% (MN, MI, WI, IA) are just massive. It's beginning to seem like Obama might lock up the supposedly competitive upper Midwest pretty early for whatever reason and the Midwestern battlegrounds might shift to the Dakotas, Indiana and Montana, all of which Kerry lost by 20+ points. Ohio and Missouri should be competitive as usual. While of course it's great Obama has such a solid Wisconsin lead (confirmed by recent polls by SurveyUSA and by the UW-Madison Poli Sci Dept), the political junkie in me would be sad to see our state lose national attention and electoral significance. But bottom line, Obama has many possible paths to 270 electoral votes. McCain doesn't seem anywhere close to picking up any blue states.
1 Comments:
ha! Montana is not in the Midwest!
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