Wisconsin is the only state for which exit polling is available where Obama won non-college whites (the most commonly accepted definition for the white working class). Obama came close in Oregon but only won 47%, according to MSNBC. He also split white women 50/50 in Oregon (his best performance), a group which he narrowly lost in Wisconsin. Looks like Obama is winning Oregon by an identical margin to Wisconsin, interesting.
I've never really heard a good explanation for why Wisconsin differs so much from states like Ohio and Pennsylvania with similar economic difficulties and number of white working class voters (where he only won 30-35%). Slightly higher education levels and a slightly better economy doesn't seem to account for the difference. My guess, part of it is the "race chasm" and part of it Clinton's transformation from "experienced" and "ready on day one" into a "fighter" before the Ohio/Texas primaries.
P.S. The race chasm doesn't seem to apply to Appalachia at all.
I've never really heard a good explanation for why Wisconsin differs so much from states like Ohio and Pennsylvania with similar economic difficulties and number of white working class voters (where he only won 30-35%). Slightly higher education levels and a slightly better economy doesn't seem to account for the difference. My guess, part of it is the "race chasm" and part of it Clinton's transformation from "experienced" and "ready on day one" into a "fighter" before the Ohio/Texas primaries.
P.S. The race chasm doesn't seem to apply to Appalachia at all.
1 Comments:
I think the fact that Obama is from Illinois had an impact as well. While many of us Wisconsinites have a certain amount of disdain for the FIBS, along with our rivalries, I think there is a mutual local recognition there as well.
I also think our political culture is very different from that of appalachia. While appalachia loves a "fighter" and fighting hard in their politics, I think WI, along with other upper midwestern states like MN, IA, IL, MI, and alot of places in the great plains and west seem to be more reform minded and about changing the process, and I think that's why Obama has done exceptionally well in these areas (minus MI, but I think if there was a revote in MI and there was a full campaign, Obama would win).
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