I've seriously been posting way too much but this is just to give a final rundown of the Texas trends and the night as a whole. Texas had a slightly different dynamic than Ohio and it ended up significantly closer. White men split right down the middle and white women went for Clinton by only 20 points. While black voters overwhelmingly supported Obama (85%), Latinos went for Clinton by about 2/3. They weren't underestimated as a % of the vote like in California, they were pretty much universally assumed to make up 1/3 of the electorate. Clinton's real powerhouse was seniors (particularly Latino and white seniors) who went for her by 2/3. There appears to be just SLIGHTLY more of an income split than there was in Ohio, with Obama doing a few points better among upper middle class to wealthy voters. Very similar split in education levels, with Obama doing about 10 points better among college graduates. Huge Catholic/Protestant split, unlike in Ohio, probably reflective of the racial divide between Latinos and African Americans. There was a similar dynamic to Ohio overall geographically, with Obama just not racking up big enough margins in the big cities to overcome Clinton's massive margins in rural areas.
It does appear the Limbaugh effect played out to some degree. Independents were 25% of the electorate with Republicans about 10%. Independents split right down the middle, while Republicans only went for Obama by about 10 points. Again, a huge change from last week. This change easily made the difference for Clinton here, although in Ohio Clinton's unexpected 10 point margin might have held up on the votes of Democrats alone. Clinton, as in Ohio, also won HUGE (20 points) among late deciders indicating her red telephone ad probably played a pretty significant role. Although this ad was hard hitting, it's nothing compared to what the Republicans are gonna throw at Obama in the general and he HAS to learn to hit back effectively (although I will say, putting Obama in "black face" is pretty dirty).
Another interesting statistic: A quarter of the primary voters said they are going to be dissatisfied whether or Obama or Clinton ends up as the nominee (different quarters, obviously) while half the party would be okay with either one. This sounds like a perfect recipe for a dream team, where one is the vice-president of the other. This would be fine except I can't see either of them being satisfied as the vice-presidential nominee but I REALLY can't see Clinton being okay with that. Yet it seems like at this point, for the good of the party, they might have to put aside all the bad blood and join forces.
So overall results after last night? Clinton won by about 250,000 popular votes in the 4 states, but she only cut his delegate total by at most a dozen delegates (the Texas Caucus results still haven't come in yet). Obama still leads by 600,000 popular votes overall and almost 100 delegates (pledged and super). His leads would be wiped out if MI and FL somehow counted but they probably won't without a revote.
So whats up next? There's Wyoming and Mississippi in the next week which Obama is almost sure to win easily. Then nothing until Pennsylvania on April 22. This state is if anything demographically more advantageous for Clinton. It's older with even more Catholics and also economically lagging. Obama will probably mostly try to get big margins in Philly and its suburbs, but hopefully make appearances everywhere. If Clinton wins PA, the race will almost certainly continue through May and June until the Convention. Is this good because the media attention stays on the Dems and they continue to build organization, or bad because they'll be ripping each other to shreads? Who knows? The last big states to vote include North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, and Indiana. It's hard to say who'd win those but probably more likely Obama in NC and OR and Clinton in KY and IN.
Whew, I'm done.
P.S. Polling was pretty close for all 4 races, which is good. It showed New Hampshire was really an exception, not the rule. Just thought I'd point it out since people tend to only notice polls when they're way off, not when they're accurate.
It does appear the Limbaugh effect played out to some degree. Independents were 25% of the electorate with Republicans about 10%. Independents split right down the middle, while Republicans only went for Obama by about 10 points. Again, a huge change from last week. This change easily made the difference for Clinton here, although in Ohio Clinton's unexpected 10 point margin might have held up on the votes of Democrats alone. Clinton, as in Ohio, also won HUGE (20 points) among late deciders indicating her red telephone ad probably played a pretty significant role. Although this ad was hard hitting, it's nothing compared to what the Republicans are gonna throw at Obama in the general and he HAS to learn to hit back effectively (although I will say, putting Obama in "black face" is pretty dirty).
Another interesting statistic: A quarter of the primary voters said they are going to be dissatisfied whether or Obama or Clinton ends up as the nominee (different quarters, obviously) while half the party would be okay with either one. This sounds like a perfect recipe for a dream team, where one is the vice-president of the other. This would be fine except I can't see either of them being satisfied as the vice-presidential nominee but I REALLY can't see Clinton being okay with that. Yet it seems like at this point, for the good of the party, they might have to put aside all the bad blood and join forces.
So overall results after last night? Clinton won by about 250,000 popular votes in the 4 states, but she only cut his delegate total by at most a dozen delegates (the Texas Caucus results still haven't come in yet). Obama still leads by 600,000 popular votes overall and almost 100 delegates (pledged and super). His leads would be wiped out if MI and FL somehow counted but they probably won't without a revote.
So whats up next? There's Wyoming and Mississippi in the next week which Obama is almost sure to win easily. Then nothing until Pennsylvania on April 22. This state is if anything demographically more advantageous for Clinton. It's older with even more Catholics and also economically lagging. Obama will probably mostly try to get big margins in Philly and its suburbs, but hopefully make appearances everywhere. If Clinton wins PA, the race will almost certainly continue through May and June until the Convention. Is this good because the media attention stays on the Dems and they continue to build organization, or bad because they'll be ripping each other to shreads? Who knows? The last big states to vote include North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, and Indiana. It's hard to say who'd win those but probably more likely Obama in NC and OR and Clinton in KY and IN.
Whew, I'm done.
P.S. Polling was pretty close for all 4 races, which is good. It showed New Hampshire was really an exception, not the rule. Just thought I'd point it out since people tend to only notice polls when they're way off, not when they're accurate.
7 Comments:
I don't buy the dream ticket, mainly because it only helps one of them.
Clinton/Obama - Clinton brings in voters that she never would have otherwise: More of the black vote and a lot of independents, and it keeps young people motivated.
Obama/Clinton - Nothing riles up the Republican base like Hillary Clinton. All of Obama's appeal among independents goes out the window and they vote McCain. Advantage here is more women and Latinos vote Democrat, but those are still two largely Democratic demographics.
Thoughts?
Obama is ahead in the popular vote nationwide? Source? I've been looking all over. Using the Politico?
Gerald:
Obama- 12,920,961
Clinton- 12,322,695
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
The crucial reason why Hillary should be Obama's VP is that she can seal up the base vote- working class democrats that he's losing to her. McCain could have immense appeal to the Reagan Democrats. Also don't take the Latino vote for granted. McCain has a moderate immigration record, and with all the talk of the latino vote for hillary being racially motivated, i wouldnt be suprised if mccain gets a significant chunk of that vote. But they do seem to *adore* Hillary.
Here's the full link from First Read for Gerald.
Anon (5:38), you make good points.
Hrm. I was wondering about the popular vote. I'd be on the side of whoever wins the popular vote to get the support of the super delegates, and this, the nomination. But it is close. And they should both be on the ticket. Hands down.
It's extremely difficult to determine popular vote totals in caucus states because votes don't directly translate into delegates and each state has its own scheme it uses. I'm not sure if that 600,000 vote lead takes into account caucus states, but I'd guess it does.
If it's close enough at the end of this thing, it may be impossible to know who won the popular vote. If Clinton has a clear lead in votes by most measures, she will have at least some claim to the nomination, even if Obama still has a marginal pledged delegate lead. If Obama still leads by 100+ delegates and pretty clearly leads in popular vote totals, I don't know how the super delegates could choose Clinton. I mean, it would be a 1968 repeat.
I really want to know how Michigan and Florida will play out. They should absolutely not have their delegates count without redoing their elections. They broke the DNC rules, as dumb as they may have been, but an election process without rules is even less democratic than caucuses. It's unfair to the voters of the states (and really, how much has been fair and democratic about the primary process so far?), but Governors Crist and Granholm should have thought of that before. Hopefully Dean will hang tough.
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