Obey, who had previously supported John Edwards, switched to Obama today.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Obey Endorses Obama
posted by Jack Craver at 2:52 PM
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6 Comments:
Is there nobody in the College Dems who will occasionally mention Hillary Clinton? It's all Barack, all the time here. She's running for President, too...
Have you been reading this blog Mr. Lang? Up until very recently it has been the Hillary Clinton show! In a perfect world this would be a forum where all of our bloggers would debate the merits of both candidates...
This is all we need to know:
Time (Feb 1-4)
Obama 48 (+7)
McCain 41
Clinton 46 (+0)
McCain 46
CNN/Opinion Research (Feb 1-3)
Obama 52 (+8)
McCain 44
Clinton 50 (+3)
McCain 47
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Jan 31-Feb 2)
Obama 45 (+2)
McCain 43
Clinton 41 (-4)
McCain 45
ABC/Washington Post (Jan 31 – Feb 1)
Obama 49 (+3)
McCain 46
Clinton 46 (-3)
McCain 49
Fox News (Jan 30-31)
Obama 44 (+1)
McCain 43
Clinton 44 (-1)
McCain 45
Rasmussen (2/04-2/07)
Obama: 47 (+5)
McCain: 42
Clinton: 43 (-3)
McCain: 46
Yeah, the polls have been terribly accurate at predicting winners this primary season.
With the admittedly HUGE exception of NH, the polls haven't actually been that bad. The polling averages have predicted the winner in almost every race. The problem is there have usually been a lot of undecideds so the margins of victory end up being completely random, as they have usually ended up breaking overwhelmingly for one candidate (Clinton in NH) or another (Obama in SC), not evenly.
But anonymous is wrong that this polling data s/he copies is "all we need to know." John Kerry was polling as the "most electable Democratic candidate against Bush" around February '04 and we know how that turned out. There's just no way to know how races will play out. Anyone can make a faux pas, you never know when a swiftboat type ad will come out that will get in touch with a segment of American voters and will stick. I think Kerry sunk like 10 points among veterans the week that ad came out, and he never got them back. My worst fear is Obama, with his message of bringing the country together, will be averse to using negative ads which all research shows ALWAYS works, and those who try to be "above the fray" get creamed. I have no fear that Hillary won't be on the attack CONSTANTLY. This isn't to say that Obama isn't the most electable, he may well be, but there's just no way to know and both our candidates have their pros and cons in this regard.
Ryan, attack ads work often but they might undermine an Obama candidacy. Ideally, I think the mindset of an undecided voter in an Obama-McCain race should be "I don't have anything against John McCain, but Obama is really exciting and he can really get this country moving..." Something along those lines. My biggest fear is that alot more people will say that although Obama is a nice, inspiring guy, John McCain seems like a more practical, experienced president.
Granted, I think what we learned from Kerry is that a candidate should never be afraid to strike back against an attack ad. Especially in a race as closely watched as the presidency, people will listen to your response.
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