Last night, Eric did a great job of emphasizing how much influence second choices will have in determining the final tally of the caucusing process later on today. As our top three candidates are effectively tied going into this thing, Dennis Kucinich's decision to ask his supporters to choose Barack Obama as their second choice could very well shift a good deal of momentum toward Obama. Given the forecast of record turnout among caucus-goers, and the conventional wisdom that such a phenomenon favors candidates like Obama and Kucinich, the Senator from Illinois may benefit significantly from the added support.
But of course, as Eric pointed out, the more-viable second-tier candidates seem likely to see their supporters move toward the Hillary Clinton camp as the night moves on. And if you trust the polling, Kucinich appears likely to only draw enough supporters to finish at or near the bottom of the initial tally. Initial supporters of Joe Biden, and especially Bill Richardson, will likely have far more say in the final outcome, which is why this developing story could be huge:
But of course, as Eric pointed out, the more-viable second-tier candidates seem likely to see their supporters move toward the Hillary Clinton camp as the night moves on. And if you trust the polling, Kucinich appears likely to only draw enough supporters to finish at or near the bottom of the initial tally. Initial supporters of Joe Biden, and especially Bill Richardson, will likely have far more say in the final outcome, which is why this developing story could be huge:
Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico Governor's organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they fail to reach the 15% threshold for viability.Before today I had never heard of Iowa Independent, but the logic behind this claim seems to make perfect sense, even if I have little reason to trust the messenger. Edwards seems to poll quite well as a second choice candidate, but for Richardson to retain any mindshare following the caucuses, the Governor likely needs to become the alternative to whoever finishes in first and second in Iowa. Even if Richardson's supporters may not be naturally inclined to back Obama, they may very well do so if it keeps their candidate viable in the next few contests. And while they (as Eric pointed out) would appear inclined to favor Hillary Clinton out of all three first-tier candidates, they may very well send their support elsewhere if Richardson may still gain down the line.
Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10% since June, may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign. And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.
1 Comments:
Assuming that Biden supporters move to Clinton, for example, simply because of "experience" or whatever other traits they have in common doesn't work. It's guessing, pure and simple. I think we all need to look at the polls that actually ask voters about second choice more so than guessing.
What do those polls say? Obama and Edwards are neck and neck (with Edwards perhaps having a slight edge as of late ) amongst caucusgoers as the most popular second choice. Hillary trails as a distant third.
Certainly, it helps for Obama to have the 2nd-choice backing of other 2nd tiers (Kucinich, as well as Richardson and Biden if the rumors are true). Nonetheless, I'd put more stock in the polls than conjecture when tryin to figure out how the second tier voters will move.
Bottom Line:
Based on the current support polls, as well as 2nd choice polls, I'm going to agree with the Critical Badger's prediction in the previous post and say Obama wins (though narrowly) over Edwards, and Clinton trails a bit in third. Biden surprises and wins fourth over Richardson, who drops out in the coming days.
Note: I thought Howard Dean would win in 2004. Clearly, I've got a track record of picking winners. I'm also a pretty solid Obama supporter, but that isn't why I think he's going to win.
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