A few points: My predictions of a Clinton victory by 6 to 8 percent didn't pan out last night. I got the winner's margin of victory right, though! (That's only partly tongue-in-cheek -- my logic about the importance of second choices still holds.)
The probable explanation, as several bloggers suggested yesterday, is that Richardson and Biden's campaigns instructed their voters to flock to Obama as their second choice. This is very bizarre and counterintuitive, but there you have it. The logic of second-choice still holds, but it defied the conventional wisdom this time (that party insiders stick together.) The second-tier campaigns probably wanted to forestall the inevitable -- Hillary Clinton being nominated. Can't wait to see what others have to say about this.
I don't believe precincts record initial tallies -- probably because the stats would be embarrassing to those who romanticize the Iowa caucuses as a perfect democratic institution. My hunch: Obama might not have won without second choices (or the results might have been a virtual tie.) If that's true, it should cause the Obama campaign some unease -- 38% in Iowa suddenly becomes less of a mandate, and more the misleading result of last-minute strategic exchanges.
On to New Hampshire!
The probable explanation, as several bloggers suggested yesterday, is that Richardson and Biden's campaigns instructed their voters to flock to Obama as their second choice. This is very bizarre and counterintuitive, but there you have it. The logic of second-choice still holds, but it defied the conventional wisdom this time (that party insiders stick together.) The second-tier campaigns probably wanted to forestall the inevitable -- Hillary Clinton being nominated. Can't wait to see what others have to say about this.
I don't believe precincts record initial tallies -- probably because the stats would be embarrassing to those who romanticize the Iowa caucuses as a perfect democratic institution. My hunch: Obama might not have won without second choices (or the results might have been a virtual tie.) If that's true, it should cause the Obama campaign some unease -- 38% in Iowa suddenly becomes less of a mandate, and more the misleading result of last-minute strategic exchanges.
On to New Hampshire!
2 Comments:
They don't record initial tallies but they do record who people intended to vote for when they enter (the entrance poll). Obama clocked in with 35% in the poll but ended up receiving 38%. Compare this to Edwards who only had 23% of the initial intentions to vote but ended up with 30% of the vote after the 2nd choices. That leads me to believe Obama pretty much would have won regardless unless ALL the 2nd choices chose Edwards or Clinton which obviously wouldn't happen. So basically they didn't end up being the decisive factor and we'll never know how many 2nd choice votes were affected by the last minute deal making on the part of Biden and Richardson and Kucinich because of the lack of polling.
You're right that we'll never know either way -- perhaps Obama could have cleared anyways. It's a shame that they don't record the initial tallies, though. This is not just laziness -- the entire institution of the caucus would be undermined if the stats became known.
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