Hey, everyone.
Thought I'd post my predictions for the caucuses tomorrow. I look forward to being proven wrong on a few of these, as I am no guru of election forecasting. But here goes:
1) Mike Huckabee wins on the Republican side, with Mitt Romney (very) close behind. It is possible that if the Republicans ran their caucuses like the Democrats, Romney would win. But since the GOP uses a secret ballot straw-poll-style system, the Huckabee votes will count everywhere -- not just in places where he has support. Who will finish after Huckabee and Romney? No idea, really -- but Fred Thompson seems the most logical guess.
2) The Democratic side is much more fun to predict. They use a 15 percent threshold at every caucus site below which a candidates' supporters are not counted. So the small pockets of support for lower-tier candidates (at sites where their support is below 15 percent) will need to gravitate towards their second choices -- sure to be Clinton, Edwards, or Obama. Collectively, these lower-tier candidates make up from 15 to 30 percent of the vote. The winner of the caucuses will be the person who gets the highest percentages of second-choice support from people who initially caucus for Biden, Richardson, and Dodd. Obama and Edwards -- strong "grassroots" candidates who distance themselves from the national party -- are probably not favored by most supporters of the lower-tier candidates. Biden, Richardson, and Dodd are all "party establishment" insiders -- their supporters are unmoved by the romanticized "clean up Washington" line. I would bet their supporters will pick Hillary Clinton as their second choice, propelling her to a 6-8 percent margin of victory over Edwards and Obama. (Remember: Dean probably lost in Iowa in 2004 because Gephardt's supporters largely moved over to Kerry and Edwards.)
3) It's unlikely, but there is a very small chance that Joe Biden will finish third. His support may be centralized enough to overcome the "threshold" rule -- mostly because his major campaign strategy has been to obtain endorsements from state senators with very centralized pockets of supporters. And he's doing better-than-expected in the heavily-Catholic counties at the state's outlying regions. This is very hypothetical, and probably won't happen. But it's certainly possible.
So, my predictions: Democrats: 1) Clinton, 2) Edwards, 3) Obama (again, there's remote potential for a Biden surprise). Republicans: 1) Huckabee, 2) Romney, 3) Thompson. There you have it.
Eric
P.S. I predicted Little Miss Sunshine to win Best Picture at the Oscars last year, so take this with a grain of salt.
Thought I'd post my predictions for the caucuses tomorrow. I look forward to being proven wrong on a few of these, as I am no guru of election forecasting. But here goes:
1) Mike Huckabee wins on the Republican side, with Mitt Romney (very) close behind. It is possible that if the Republicans ran their caucuses like the Democrats, Romney would win. But since the GOP uses a secret ballot straw-poll-style system, the Huckabee votes will count everywhere -- not just in places where he has support. Who will finish after Huckabee and Romney? No idea, really -- but Fred Thompson seems the most logical guess.
2) The Democratic side is much more fun to predict. They use a 15 percent threshold at every caucus site below which a candidates' supporters are not counted. So the small pockets of support for lower-tier candidates (at sites where their support is below 15 percent) will need to gravitate towards their second choices -- sure to be Clinton, Edwards, or Obama. Collectively, these lower-tier candidates make up from 15 to 30 percent of the vote. The winner of the caucuses will be the person who gets the highest percentages of second-choice support from people who initially caucus for Biden, Richardson, and Dodd. Obama and Edwards -- strong "grassroots" candidates who distance themselves from the national party -- are probably not favored by most supporters of the lower-tier candidates. Biden, Richardson, and Dodd are all "party establishment" insiders -- their supporters are unmoved by the romanticized "clean up Washington" line. I would bet their supporters will pick Hillary Clinton as their second choice, propelling her to a 6-8 percent margin of victory over Edwards and Obama. (Remember: Dean probably lost in Iowa in 2004 because Gephardt's supporters largely moved over to Kerry and Edwards.)
3) It's unlikely, but there is a very small chance that Joe Biden will finish third. His support may be centralized enough to overcome the "threshold" rule -- mostly because his major campaign strategy has been to obtain endorsements from state senators with very centralized pockets of supporters. And he's doing better-than-expected in the heavily-Catholic counties at the state's outlying regions. This is very hypothetical, and probably won't happen. But it's certainly possible.
So, my predictions: Democrats: 1) Clinton, 2) Edwards, 3) Obama (again, there's remote potential for a Biden surprise). Republicans: 1) Huckabee, 2) Romney, 3) Thompson. There you have it.
Eric
P.S. I predicted Little Miss Sunshine to win Best Picture at the Oscars last year, so take this with a grain of salt.
5 Comments:
I guess I'll be the first one with a bone to pick. There is no way that Fred Thompson finishes third for the Republicans tomorrow. The former Senator said the other day that he only ran because he was asked, not because it's something he really wanted to do.
Republicans will make John McCain their #3, hands down.
Biden is not going to finish 3rd and probably not even 4th. Sorry.
1) Ryan -- As I noted, the odds of a third-place Biden finish are very small. It's just an intriguing possibility that I thought I'd toss out there. It's always possible for lightning to strike, even though it rarely does. If you told me right now that lightning was going to strike tomorrow, this is how it will probably happen. But objectively, I think Biden finishes at least fourth.
2) Oliver -- you're probably right about McCain finishing third, and I had hoped somebody would quarrel with me. That's my clumsiest prediction. But in my defense: a recent poll placed Thompson only 4 points behind McCain. We know too that illegal immigration is a central Republican issue -- it seems to draw single-issue voters -- and Thompson has the advantage there no matter what. I'm closer right now to agreeing with you than agreeing with myself 3 hours ago. But we'll see. Can't wait to hear about your experiences.
1. Obama 2. Edwards 3. Clinton
1. Romney 2. Jesus Christ 3. McCain
Story going into NH:
1. Obama surges into top dog status, setting up must win for Clinton in NH. I think Edwards is done w/o a win. As a result, the entire Democratic political establishment in Madison will sulk.
2. Jesus Christ is done. AND (this is key) McCain will get 15% or so and be a secondary storyline. This sets up a Romney vs McCain throw down in NH, which McCain wins ===> SC final round. Winner of that has a shot to take down Rudy in FLA and other states for the nomination. It's kind of like a college football playoff!
Regarding your second point:
I still fundamentally disagree with your characterization of how 2nd tier supporters view the race. Polling data suggests Edwards and Obama are vastly more popular as second choice candidates than Hillary Clinton.
Not only would she have to overcome the disadvantage she has as a 2nd choice (which polls have found nearly unanimously), she'd also have to enter the 2nd round essentially tied with Obama and Edwards.
Even if she beats out the other two for 2nd choice support, she could win. However, I think she's facing too big a hill to overcome both Edwards and Obama to win it all, as all the latest polling for her is headed south. I think her best hope is to have a significant lead over the other two in the first round of voting, but that seems unlikely. If Obama or Edwards beats her in the first round, I doubt 2nd tier support gravitates her way. She's essentially the incumbent. If you aren't already with her, you probably aren't going to be.
She's a great candidate, a tough warrior and would make a fantastic President, but I think it will take a miracle for her to win tonight.
But I could be wrong. We'll know in six hours, eh?
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