By way of MyDD, I've noticed some of the latest Iowa numbers, which suggest a very close race:
1st choice 2nd choiceGiven how caucuses are run, second choice numbers may prove to be a decisive factor in areas where the numbers don't favor Obama or Clinton. Jerome has some more insight into the ways turnout may be affected by various factors, and how many participants may favor each major candidate.
Clinton 30 21
Obama 28 22
Edwards 26 26
Richardson 7 6
Biden 3 7
Dodd 1 4
Other 4 13
Basically, if it's all the tried and true 2004 caucus goers, plus another 25% or so, that Edwards has the advantage. If it winds up being a blown out caucus that has greater than 50,000 more attendees than 2004 (most of the polls are working off this assumption), then Obama wins. If it's somewhere in the middle, bigger than what would be usual but less than what's being projected in the polls, then it's basically going to be something like this poll.I'll surely be watching the forecasts over the next couple weeks...
The big '?' is weather. A snowy cold night will depress turnout. Right now, snow is being projected to begin just after Christmas and getting heavier as the year ends.
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